Can the carrier community look forward to any break in its long bout with low freight rates?
Participants at the recent 2025 FTR Transportation Conference do not sound hopeful. FTR provides forecasting trends in shipping, trucking, rail and equipment – as well as for the supporting equipment and financial communities.
According to Transport Topics’ coverage of the event, FTR’s forecast for various kinds of freight hauling do not suggest conditions will be agreeable for rate increases:
Volumes have been little changed, FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise said, and an improvement is unlikely before 2027.
FTR expects dry van truck loadings to fall 0.6% in 2025, another 0.3% in 2026 and rise 2.3% in 2027. The research and analysis group expects refrigerated van truck loadings to increase 0.7% in 2025, 2026 and 2027.
But, said Vise, such changes are unlikely to alter the freight market without a substantial cut in carrier capacity even though many players are already running extremely tight ships.
FTR thinks that will add up to a rate increase of less than 2 percent in 2025 and 2026, which doesn’t do much to offset recent cost increases of more than 5 percent.
According to KCH, truckload volumes haven’t been this low since 2018, although the spot market remains resilient:
Since February, when the tariffs were announced, outbound tender volumes have been losing ground each month and now reside between 2018 and 2019 levels. Volumes did experience a decent increase over the last week in the run up to Labor Day, but they still reside 15% lower than 2024 levels. Although still under the 5-year average, spot availability persists predominantly over the last two years. Although there may be less total demand overall, the market structure is keeping spot availability afloat.
What will be the likely impact on the rest of the logistics market if carriers continue to grapple with low rates?
According to Martin Lew, CEO of Commtrex, other industry players should pay attention to which carriers are making moves to strengthen themselves.
“I think you will see a bit more consolidation,” Lew said. “That could also include some M&A activity as owners of smaller carriers are finally matched up with buyers who will allow them to exit. Carriers who need a stronger financial underpinning will be more open to mergers – or to being acquired – if we go through another year with flat rates.”
At the same time, Lew suggested that 3PLs should keep an eye on their carrier partners and ensure they are working with carriers who remain in a strong fiscal position to move through 2026.
“If FTR’s predictions are correct, and the result is that rates don’t increase, the 3PL market will have some very happy shipper clients,” Lew said. “But they will only be happy if their freight is delivered as they expect, so 3PLs must walk a fine line between taking advantage of the shippers’ market and making sure they have strong carriers to work with. 3PLs need to vet their carriers more closely than ever to make sure they have up-to-date technology for visibility, and that they’re maintaining a strong, qualified stable of drivers.”